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First move advantage in Western Chess - why does it exist?[Subject Thread] [Add Response]

Joe Joyce wrote on Fri, Aug 31, 2012 06:26 PM UTC:

In your last example, HG, promotion is the only thing that can happen to
change the current game state to one in which a win can occur. And the
pawns are essentially isolated, so however many turns it takes to promote
that first pawn, that's as fast as the game can possibly go, so I do see
it as fast. And by "linear", I mean in that situation, there is nothing
else you can do. It has gone from game to puzzle once there is a guaranteed
win that a human expert can conceivably see. Or, maybe better [and maybe
not], once the situation has clarified enough that it is calculable through
to mate. 

I think I want to go back to what 53% - 47% actually means, and how I see
white's FIDE 1st turn ad as very significant. That 6% difference is ~1/8th
of the 47% black points or nearly 13% right there. But ~3/8th of the games
are draws, and to see a pure win-loss percentage, I discard these, and see
about a 34% - 28% win-lose there, translates to a roughly 23% advantage for
white. That is the number I am trying to reduce toward zero with the Chief
series.